06/24/2008
from the Kennebec Journal
QUESTIONS REMAIN
No complaints from those who switched to Somerset County center
Vote on 1 may hurt some in election
Steeple at center of debate in Whitefield
VETERANS REQUIRE ASSISTANCE: Homelessness takes center stage
J.P. DEVINE: Overcome sadness with hope
BASKETBALL: NBA Hall of Famer Barry doles out advice at Thomas College
HIGH SCHOOL CROSS COUNTRY: Maranacook sophomore Mace dominates Class B field
All of today's:
News | Sports
from the Kennebec Journal
from the Morning Sentinel
A year later, families await answers on fatalities
Owner of topless coffee shop on the comeback trail
Officials report cheaper, better service after switch
Two people in critical condition
Young Marines stick to program
Issue of homeless veterans at center stage
GIRLS SOCCER STATE CHAMPIONSHIP: Winslow falls to York in Class B
Bard hits her marathon stride
All of today's:
News | Sports
from the Morning Sentinel
This year, an unusual quirk in election law could bring the election night focus to Nebraska and Maine.
These are the only two states that allow their electoral votes to be split.
Let's start this column with a primer on the electoral college -- the system in the U.S. Constitution establishing the way states vote for president. Each state gets the same number of electoral votes as its number of members of Congress.
That means one for each U.S. senator -- there are two from every state -- and one for each member of the U.S. House of Representatives. The number of representatives varies, based on the population of the state, and so do the number of electoral votes. The least populous states like North Dakota get three electoral votes. California, with the largest population, gets 54.
In 48 states and the District of Columbia, the candidate with the most votes statewide wins all the state's electoral votes.
Florida is a good example of how the system works. In 2000, more than nearly 6 million people voted in Florida. Bush won by 523 votes. Despite that narrow victory, he received all of the state's 25 electoral votes. That put Bush in the White House.
If there were a similarly close election in Nebraska or Maine, the electoral vote could be split, with one vote going to the candidate who won each congressional district and two to the candidate with the largest total statewide.
Say, for instance, that Democratic Sen. Barack Obama received the most votes in Maine, largely by piling up a big majority in the 1st Congressional District, which includes southern Maine, Portland and Augusta, while Republican Sen. John McCain received a few more votes than Obama in the 2nd Congressional District, which includes Lewiston and the northern part of the state.
Obama would receive one electoral vote for winning the 1st District and two votes for winning statewide, but McCain would get one electoral vote for his success in the 2nd District.
Nebraska, which has three congressional districts, gets five electoral votes. Historically, the state has supported Republican presidential candidates.
But it's not impossible that Obama could win the state's 2nd District that includes Omaha, while McCain wins the rest of the state. That would give Obama one electoral vote and McCain four.
In a close election, the swing of one electoral vote from Maine or Nebraska could make the difference between winning and losing.
I raised the possibility with L. Sandy Maisel, director of the Goldfarb Center for Public Affairs at Colby College. Maisel, a political scientist, has written widely about presidential and congressional elections. He is also a columnist for this newspaper.
I asked him if the idea of splitting Maine's vote is science fiction or a real possibility.
"It's not science fiction, but it's not likely," Maisel said.
There has never been a presidential election in either Maine or Nebraska in which the candidate who won statewide vote lost one of the congressional districts, Maisel said. Still, it's possible, and both parties know it.
Maisel does not think this is the year a split will take place -- but he says both parties will spend some money and effort in the 2nd District, just in case.
Maisel says he thinks either Obama will gain the support of those who backed Hilary Clinton -- in which case Obama will be elected president by a wide majority -- or the Clinton supporters will not embrace Obama, in which case McCain will be elected.
My academic credentials are not nearly as strong as Maisel's, but I've been following presidential politics for more than 40 years. I share Maisel's opinion.
That may make us both right -- or wrong. Check back on Nov. 5.
In the meantime, ponder this: There are proposals in several states to adopt the electoral system used in Maine and Nebraska. Some say the change should be nationwide. While the potential for dividing Maine's electoral votes has never had a practical impact here, if adopted nationally the change would be profound.
In 2000, it would have meant a lopsided electoral victory for Bush, despite the fact that he received 500,000 fewer votes than Gore.
Consider California. Gore carried the state in 2000 and received its 54 electoral votes. But if there had been a Maine/Nebraska system for allocating electoral votes, Gore would have won 35, Bush 19.
If the system had been adopted nationally, the electoral total would have been Bush 285, Gore 253.
The 2000 election was not the first time the electoral vote favored a candidate who received fewer popular votes than his opponent. It probably will not be the last.
It is unlikely that the shift of one vote in Nebraska or Maine will be the difference in the 2008 election, but it's one more thing to watch as the vote is counted.
David B. Offer is the retired executive editor of the Kennebec Journal and the Morning Sentinel. E-mail davidboffer@hotmail.com.




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