BY JOHN RICHARDSON

Portland Press Herald

Let's hope Maine's U.S. senators enjoy being in the heat of the action on health care reform. It will be a good warmup for the next item on the congressional to-do list: climate change.

Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins are at the top of the list of Republicans who are most likely to vote for a cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, advocates say it's hard to imagine anything passing without them.

"Maine's senators ... are critical," said Rafe Pomerance, president of Clean Air-Cool Planet, a nonprofit group that is lobbying for the law.

The current debate over health care reform has shown what being in that position can mean for Maine and its swing-vote senators.

Snowe helped shape the health care legislation in committee as the sole Republican who was open to supporting it, all the while dodging the national press corps and taking phone calls from President Obama.

Now, Collins is getting her share of the heat, and power, as a GOP fence-sitter who could add a measure of bipartisan support.

The stakes could be even higher when it comes to the climate change bill, which will be the focus of committee hearings next week. That's because the Democrats almost certainly cannot pass the bill on their own, at least not with the 60 votes needed to block a filibuster.

Climate legislation will either be bipartisan or dead, says Pomerance, who visited Portland this week for a panel discussion on global warming.

"Energy politics tends to cut regionally rather than along party lines," he said. "Some Democrats from coal states, and some Republicans from coal states, will have problems."

A cap-and-trade program would have financial winners and losers, and the coal industry would certainly be put at a competitive disadvantage to the natural gas industry, as well as the renewable energy industry.

There are many important details to be worked out before the yes and no votes can be counted in the Senate.

How would a cap-and-trade program distribute the emissions allowances? How would the system protect consumers and businesses from higher energy prices? Would the bill promote nuclear energy and offshore oil drilling?

At this point, observers say at least five Republican supporters will be needed to reach 60 votes in the Senate. Those Republicans will be able to make significant changes before adding their support.

Snowe and Collins were the only Republican senators listed as "probably yes" votes this week by the online journal Environment & Energy Daily. Several prominent Republican were labeled "fence-sitters," including John McCain of Arizona (who campaigned for president in favor of cap-and-trade), Lindsay Graham of South Carolina (who called for a compromise in The New York Times this month) and Judd Gregg of New Hampshire (a past supporter of climate change legislation).

It certainly helps that Snowe and Collins represent a state with no coal industry and aspirations to become the wind and tidal power capital of the Northeast. And it's no coincidence they also represent a state that helped create the nation's first carbon cap-and-trade system, a 10-state cooperative called the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative.

Those things aside, Snowe and Collins have been studying and talking about climate change for years. They have even co-sponsored unsuccessful bills to reduce climate change emissions and to set up cap-and-trade programs.

When the Senate climate bill was introduced late last month, both Snowe and Collins issued statements saying they were eager to work on the issue. Of course, given the power they are likely to have, they didn't pledge support for anything.

Snowe said Congress must "end energy paralysis and confront this monumental 21st century challenge. At the same time, it is imperative any legislation incorporates the well-being of our economy as a foremost priority."

A spokesman for Collins said she wants to see a bill "that does not impose onerous burdens on consumers and industry."

"Both of them are certainly capable of being persuaded to vote for a bill. The large question, however, is what kind of bill," said Anthony Buxton, a Portland-based attorney.

with Preti Flaherty and a member of the firm's Climate Strategy Group. Buxton helped shape the Northeast cap-and-trade program on behalf of large industry, and is closely monitoring the federal debate.

The full Senate debate on climate change may start in earnest this winter, but that depends on when the health care overhaul is finished and whether senators have the stomach for another big battle before the 2010 elections.

Whenever it heats up, Buxton said, he's sure that both Maine senators will be right in the middle of it.

"There is no question -- they'll have a significant say," Buxton said. "And that's great for Maine and it's good for the country."