BY ANN S. KIM

Portland Press Herald

For Maine's tourism industry, there's uncertainty in the Fourth of July weekend forecast.

On the plus side, the holiday falls on the weekend rather than mid-week, gas prices are lower than last year and cabin fever could motivate people to get out and about.

On the downside, doubts about the economy and the weather may keep would-be visitors at home.

"If there's one thing I'd do away with, it's the Weather Channel. The Weather Channel drives me crazy," said Vaughn Stinson, director of the Maine Tourism Association.

The weather could be beautiful in Maine, Stinson explained, but if people hear the word rain in a forecast, they won't show up. That is a growing problem when people are increasingly making vacation plans at the last minute.

While the Memorial Day weekend is considered the traditional start of the tourism season, it doesn't get into full swing until after kids get out of school in June. July, August and the middle of September -- when leaf peepers arrive -- represent the critical period for much of the tourism industry, Stinson said.

There's a chance that the weather will take a turn for the better over the weekend. There may be some clearing Saturday, depending on the movement of a low pressure area, said Butch Roberts, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. A more northerly route might mean nicer weather -- the farther south it tracks, the worse conditions are likely to get.

"We have a shot," Roberts said. Thursday night, the National Weather Service was forecasting a 50 percent chance of showers Saturday with thunderstorms possible after 2 p.m. Saturday night was forecast to be mostly cloudy.

The holiday weekend comes on the heels of a very rainy June. Portland had 8.56 inches of rain, making the month the fifth rainiest June since such records started being kept in 1871, according to the National Weather Service. The normal amount of rain for June is 3.28 inches.

The combination of bad weather and a bad economy made June a bleak month for the state's lodging industry. Revenue will likely be down 10 percent for the year ending in June, according to Greg Dugal, executive director of the Maine Innkeepers Association. Revenues were down 8.9 percent through April, the latest month for which figures are available.

There's no clear pattern for holiday weekend bookings, although coastal areas from Brunswick south seem to be faring OK, Dugal said.

"I've got people who look pretty good," he said. "Then I have people who are saying they don't have any rooms booked. It's all over the map."

Forecasts for traffic on the Maine Turnpike may provide reason for optimism.

Northbound traffic through the York toll plaza from Friday through Monday is expected to be up as much as 12 percent, according to the authority and the University of Maine Systems' Center for Tourism Research and the Outreach. Signs of economic improvement and the chance of better weather were cited as factors. Lower gas prices are also expected to play a role. The average price of a gallon of regular unleaded was $2.69 Thursday, compared to $4.11 a year ago, according to AAA.

Year-to-year traffic comparisons can be difficult because the holiday falls on a different day of the week each year. More than 45,000 northbound vehicles are expected to pass through York on Friday, when more people are expected to travel.

Funtown Splashtown USA in Saco is trying to allay weather worries by offering rain checks to visitors when bad weather forces an early closing. Recipients can come back another time to finish their daily admission.

This is the first time the park is promoting the weather guarantee, which has been in place for several years, said Ed Hodgdon, the marketing manager.

That promotion and other new ones aimed at cultivating repeat business are part of the park's response to the economy.

"Even though the economy is kind of sour this year, we want to make sure families are having fun times together at an amusement park," Hodgdon said.

Maine Made and More has been busy despite the weather, said Carol Hulse, an employee at the Boothbay Harbor gift shop.

Events like Windjammer Days last month and Fourth of July festivities like a chicken barbecue and a crafts show seem to help, she said. And visitors can only stay inside for so long, she noted.

"There are quite a few Europeans, a lot from out of state -- southern states," she said. "They don't mind the cooler weather."