BY JONATHAN E. KAPLAN

MaineToday Media, Inc.

Maine is looking more like a battleground state as John McCain and Barack Obama court independent voters and chase every last electoral vote in their respective quests for the White House.

More than a third of Maine's voters don't belong to any party. What's more, the state has the ability to divide its four electoral votes between the two candidates. These factors could make Maine an attractive campaign spot for Sens. McCain, R-Ariz., and Obama, D-Ill., as they seek to target undecided independent voters before the Nov. 4 general election.

"If Republicans are looking around for additional states to put into play, I think they'd give it a shot," said Stuart Rothenberg, the author of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report.

Signaling his intent to contest the state, McCain has tentative plans to visit Maine in July, according to his campaign. Obama has no plans to visit the state at this time, according to his campaign, although Gov. John Baldacci said Friday that Obama had told him he was looking forward to campaigning in Maine.

Even though Maine has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in the past four elections, independent voters outnumber both registered Democrats and Republicans.

Maine appeals to Republican and independent presidential candidates because it is one of two states, including Nebraska, that splits its electoral votes. In Maine, the statewide winner gets two votes and the winner of either the 1st or 2nd congressional districts gets a vote. The other states have a winner-take-all system.

"McCain would fit the state pretty well. He's a moderate Republican, a quirky maverick in some respects," Rothenberg said. "Maybe they could pick off the northern congressional district."

A candidate must reach the magic number of 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Republicans tend to favor the more conservative 2nd District, where they have a better shot of winning.

"I think the campaigning will look like it did in 2004 and they'll tend to go to the 2nd District," said Jim Melcher, a political scientist at the University of Maine in Farmington.

In 2004, Democratic vice presidential nominee John Edwards campaigned in Orono and President Bush's former chief of staff, Andrew Card, campaigned in Waterville. Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts won both of Maine's congressional districts.

In 2000, Maine was slightly more competitive. GOP vice presidential nominee Dick Cheney visited Portland and Sen. Joseph Lieberman, then a Democrat running as Al Gore's vice presidential nominee, campaigned in Bangor.

Early polls show that Obama is favored to win in Maine. A Rasmussen poll in May showed Obama leading McCain by 13 points, and a SurveyUSA poll from February showed Obama leading by 14 points.

Several other factors could aid his bid. First, many more Democrats turned out to caucus for Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., than any of the Republican candidates. About 45,000 Democrats caucused, compared with only 5,000 Republicans.

Second, of the nearly 15,000 new voters who have registered in Maine since January 2007, 44 percent registered as Democrats and 36 percent registered as independents, whereas only 15 percent registered as Republicans.

"The state has trended Democratic in recent years and this is continuing and it appears that Obama enthusiasm is reaching into Maine," said Mark Brewer, a political scientist at the University of Maine in Orono.

Although McCain performed well in New Hampshire's primaries in 2000 and 2008, he lost Maine's Republican primary in 2000 to President Bush and he lost the 2008 Maine Republican caucuses to former Massaachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

While Maine is on the bubble of becoming a swing state, New Hampshire is a swing state. It is the only state in the Northeast that flipped to the Democratic column in 2004 from the Republican's column in 2000. McCain visited the state last week. Its proximity to Maine could bring candidates and television advertising to the southern part of the state at least.

Finally, Maine's nationally watched Senate race between incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic Rep. Tom Allen and the open seat in the 1st District congressional race also could draw more money, surrogate campaigners and even the candidates themselves to the state.

"I think that Maine will get a lot of play, especially from the Republicans, because McCain and Collins are so closely tied," said Sandy Maisel, a political scientist at Colby College. "That could well lead to Obama spending some time in the state as well. It is an easy 'two-for,' with a stop in New Hampshire and a quick swing to pick up our media market."

Allen and Collins already have raised record sums for their campaign coffers, and independent groups are expected to air television advertisements and help get out the vote.

Both McCain and Obama have started building campaign organizations in the state.

McCain has relied on Snowe and Lieberman, now an independent, to showcase the "Citizens for McCain" committee. The goal is to attract voters who consider themselves independents or Democrats. Both Snowe and Collins were early backers of McCain's candidacy.

The Arizona senator also appointed Ben Gilman, a former aide to the Maine House Republican caucus, as his top field operative in the state.

"I expect that Sen. McCain will visit Maine and compete vigorously in Maine," said Jim Barnett, McCain's regional campaign manager. "His style and his brand of politics appeals to Mainers who are independent thinkers and appreciate his straight talk."

Obama announced in May that he would have a state director and campaign organization in all 50 states. His campaign also has a "handful of staffers in Maine working on the Vote for Change Voter registration drive," which the campaign launched last month, said Obama spokeswoman Amy Brundage.

She added that the campaign would begin adding staff and resources "in the coming weeks. We will be building our movement for change in Maine because we believe that Maine voters deserve to hear what is at stake in this election."

The Associated Press contributed to this story

Nugget:

Maine has a large number of independent voters, but Democratic presidential candidates have fared well in the state in recent elections. Since January 2007, more Democrats have registered to vote in Maine than independents and Republicans

Registered voters as of June 5, 2008

Total:907,650 registered voters

293,296 Democrats (32 percent)

252,963 Republicans (28 percent)

335,876 Independents (37 percent)

25,515 Green (3 percent)

New registered voters since Jan. 1, 2007

Democrats:6,517

Green:595

Independents:5,32

Republicans:2,272

2004 results

Kerry: 396,000

Bush: 330,000

1st House district:Kerry +46,000

2nd CD:Kerry +21,000

Source: Maine Secretary of State's Office